Weighted Pipeline Value Calculator — Forecast Revenue from Deal Size & Win Probability
Enter each deal's amount and win probability (%) to instantly calculate your sales pipeline's Weighted Pipeline Value. A free tool for sales managers and RevOps teams.
What weighted pipeline value is
Weighted pipeline value is **the expected revenue you get by multiplying each deal’s amount by its probability of closing and adding the results together**. Summing the amounts flat treats a deal just proposed and a deal about to be signed as one and the same, which lands you on a number far more hopeful than the reality. Weighting by probability shows what the deals now on the board are realistically likely to bring in.
**The figure is a statistical expectation, and each individual deal resolves only one way or the other — won or lost.** A deal at 70% never closes 0.7 of the time. The more deals there are, the smaller the gap between the expectation and the outcome tends to be, but a single large deal at low probability swings the whole. The larger the amount, the more care the probability deserves.
How to use the calculator
- Add the deals one at a time Use “add deal” to create rows and name each one. The names are there to tell them apart and do not enter the calculation.
- Enter the amounts Give each deal’s value. Rows left without an amount drop out of the totals.
- Enter the probability of closing Give a percentage matching the deal’s stage. Settling on shared house figures — 20% at first meeting, 50% in proposal, 80% at final approval — keeps reps from drifting apart.
- Compare the two numbers The flat sum of the amounts sits beside the probability-weighted expectation. The first is the ceiling, reached only if every deal closes.
- Refresh it regularly Probabilities move as the quarter draws on. Updating weekly sharpens the view of where the quarter will land.
Tips for getting more out of it
- Agree on standard win-probability guidelines per deal stage (e.g. 20% for first meeting, 50% for proposal, 80% for final approval) so estimates stay consistent across reps.
- This tool estimates deals that have not yet closed. Once a deal closes, track it individually with Annual Contract Value calculator.
- A single large deal with a low win probability can swing the total weighted value significantly, so pay extra attention to accuracy on your biggest deals.
- Win probabilities shift as the quarter progresses, so re-entering them regularly keeps your end-of-quarter forecast more accurate.
Where it helps
Forecasting where the quarter lands
The flat sum leans too hopeful and closed business alone too gloomy. This gives you the realistic line between them.
Measuring the gap to target
Where the expectation falls short of target, the numbers tell you whether you need to lift probabilities or add deals.
Reviewing the pipeline in a sales meeting
Setting amounts against probabilities brings out which deals carry the expectation, and so where the time should go.
Getting probabilities applied consistently
Where reps assign different probabilities at the same stage, the forecast will not hold. This grounds the discussion that fixes the standard.
Carrying it through to closed business
For contracts already won, see the annual contract value calculator; for the pace of the whole sales cycle, the sales velocity calculator.
Terms about weighted pipeline
- Weighted pipeline value
- The sum of each deal’s amount multiplied by its probability of closing. It states the expected revenue from deals not yet won, probability included.
- Probability of closing
- The likelihood the deal is won, as a percentage. Figures are usually set per stage, worked back from historical win rates.
- Deal stage
- How far a deal has progressed — first meeting, proposal, quotation, final approval. The further along, the higher the probability assigned.
- Flat sum
- The deal amounts added with no regard to probability. It is the ceiling, reached only if every deal closes.
- Pipeline
- The deals in flight, arranged by stage. It shows how much value is sitting at each point of the process.
- RevOps
- The function that aligns the numbers and the workings of sales, marketing and customer success. Setting probability standards and keeping forecasts honest often falls to it.
Frequently asked questions
Side Note — Why sales forecasts multiply in "probability"
When a sales manager tries to predict how the quarter will land, simply adding up every deal's amount tends to produce an overly optimistic number. Treating a deal that was just proposed the same as one about to be signed means losing a single large, early-stage deal can throw the whole forecast off.
To avoid this, sales organizations widely multiply each deal by its win probability to compute an expected value — the same idea behind expected value in statistics: "if this situation repeated many times, what would the average outcome be," applied in advance to a single deal's forecast.
While ACV handles the annualized value of a single, already-closed contract, this tool sums multiple still-open deals weighted by probability — a different target. Most CRMs build this idea into their pipeline reports by default; this tool lets smaller teams estimate it easily even before adopting a full CRM.